WiFi NBN not fibre: PLEASE MAKE IT STOP!

Since we're talking about the NBN OH GOD PLEASE MAKE IT STOP the next time you decide to make a serious business decision based on a Business Spectator story, take a look at this story first.

Don't want to? OK, here are the high points: instead of the NBN, build fibre to the street, and do the rest with WiFi.

“WiFi is getting to the point where it could be used for the last bit of the network that connects households and businesses to the fibre. This is what should be the focus of an "open and transparent debate”.

Did I already yell “please make it stop”? Yeah, no need to repeat that bit.

The short version.

1. WiFi hotspots are shared: securing an individual's traffic is not trivial.
2. WiFi hotspots are shared: one user can swamp the network.
3. WiFi hotspots suffer interference from other WiFi hotspots – they use shared, unmanaged spectrum.

Read on:

“The NBN fibre could be brought to smaller neighbourhoods and then connected to each home and business using new powerful WiFi options, specifically little things called "picocells”.”

A picocell isn't a WiFi hotspot (PLEASE MAKE IT STOP!), it's a little mobile phone base station designed to connect to the fixed network and eliminate in-building cellular blackspots. That is: if there's a blackspot inside (say) a shopping centre, Telstra or Optus or Vodafone might decide it's worth bringing in a picocell so people can still use their smartphones.

It's got nothing to do with providing last mile wireless access.

Now, if you have the IQ of a fence-post and spare cash, go out and spend a couple of billion on a WiFi last-mile network, on the advice of Business Spectator, and go broke. I'll be laughing in the wind-up proceedings.

“Retail suffers in election years”

Well, of course Eli Greenblat is sympathetic to what retailers say. He’s the Fairfax “retail reporter” after all (one of the great dangers in specialisation is that the reporter identifies with the speciality instead of the reader. I try to pay attention and avoid this myself).

Here’s the article: “Election call a disaster, says Specialty”

The ‘money quote’ is this: "Election periods always, always, affect us and the fact that it has been called so early is an absolute disaster, [Specialty Fashion Group CEO Gary] Perlstein said.

Oh really? Here’s a quick capture of retail trade since the 2001 elections. I’ve taken the Australian Bureau of Statistics’ seasonally-adjusted retail trade growth for:

-    The quarter preceding the election; and
-    The quarter in which the election was held.

One datum is missing – in 2008, December quarter seasonally adjusted retail growth was left out because of the government’s stimulus package.

Something odd happened in 2003 – there was killer retail growth. If you eliminate the outlier, what do you see?

2001 – growth above average for the preceding quarter and election quarter
2004 – growth on average for the preceding quarter, below average in the election quarter
2007 – growth above average for the preceding quarter and election quarter
2010 – growth on average for the preceding quarter, below average in the election

What about clothing retail alone, since that’s what Specialty does?

Nope. The clothing retail item, seasonally adjusted, in the ABS data set is just as likely to rise ahead of an election as it is to fall.

However, the ground is prepared: if Specialty doesn't perform in 2013, we know what excuse will be given.