Cybercrime amendment a shadow of “#Ozlog”

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It’s like this: I don’t like it when people who consider themselves the “good guys” spread misinformation, apparently believing that it’s okay if it’s “for the cause”.

1.     The bill isn’t the same as the National Security Inquiry

Either because they’ve confused two government activities, or deliberately, some have conflated the Cybercrime Amendment Bill 2011 with the National Security Inquiry.

The NatSec Inquiry – which does include proposals for broad-scale data retention – never got as far as presenting even draft legislation: it’s reportedly been put on ice (although Nicola Roxon, Attorney-General, hasn't made a statement to that effect).

The Cybercrime Amendment Bill has, on the other hand, been in the pipeline since 2011.

2.     Why weren’t we consulted?

Some journalists and commentators have complained that there wasn’t a public consultation. There was: they’ve just forgotten it, because it took place in 2011 – or they took no notice of it anyhow.

The submissions to the consultation can be found here: http://www.aph.gov.au/Parliamentary_Business/Committees/House_of_Representatives_Committees?url=jscc/cybercrime_bill/subs.htm

The report was published last August: http://www.aph.gov.au/Parliamentary_Business/Committees/House_of_Representatives_Committees?url=jscc/cybercrime_bill/report.htm

3.     It’s not warrantless surveillance

Unlike whatever as-yet-undrafted proposals that may arise from the National Security Inquiry, the Cybercrime Amendment Bill doesn’t allow law enforcement to get information without a warrant.

The bill allows them to request storage, either covering someone’s communications for a single day, or communications for 30 days. Enforcement can only see the stored information if it gets a warrant – if it can’t get the warrant, the storage request expires and the data can no longer be held.

4.     If I’m defending the Act I must support it, right?

Wrong.

I like debates to work with the facts.

People who take misinformation into a political debate are fools, because they’re handing a get-out-of-jail-free card to their opponents. Someone – say, Nicola Roxon – gets to focus on correcting the misinformation, and doesn’t have to spend as much time explaining, justifying or defending the reality.

The National Security Inquiry will be revived. It will improve everybody’s debating position if they learn to work with facts rather than exaggerations and urban myths.

Climate change is wrong because …

Wired has http://www.wired.com/wiredscience/2012/08/ff_apocalypsenot/all/ this long piece by Matt Ridley. I’m not Wired, but I’m in a rebuttal kind of mood …

I’ll sum up Ridley’s argument this way: apocalyptic scientists are always wrong, so stop worrying about climate change.

The problems with the article are so many (his discussion of infectious disease gets down to the plainly silly) that I have to pick just the high points:

1. Misdirection
2. Blaming the scientist for the media
3. Ignoring the caveats
4. Misrepresentation

1. Misdirection

Ridley is happy enough to attack Rachel Carson – but not over her science. He doesn’t address her writings at all; rather, he devotes more than 100 words to attacking not Carson, but “her chief inspiration” Wilhelm Hueper.

Ridley then goes on to smear Carson’s warnings about environmental chemicals and cancer with this throwaway: “cancer incidence and death rates … have been falling now for 20 years.” Cancer research, of course, has stood still that entire time, and DDT use has grown – right?

2. Blaming the scientist for the media

In discussing air pollution, Ridley cites not a scientist as his first source, but Time. It’s a well-established way to attack science: blame the media’s handling of science stories on the scientists themselves (we saw this in 2011 and 2012 in the “faster than light neutrino” story: the press first played up the wildest possibility, then blamed the scientists when their preferred outcome didn’t eventuate).

Some scientists “throw the switch to vaudeville” – and frequently get called out by other scientists. More often, in my experience, the “apocalypse” happens when journalists cherry-pick the extreme end of the projections to get a better headline.

The majority of sources Ridley cites are not scientists, but journalists - with a couple of economists, one medical doctor, a politician and TV presenter thrown in for colour. In what way do their witterings cast doubt on sicence?

3. Ignoring the caveat

Ridley then goes on to blame the scientists for presenting an apocalypse that didn’t happen. He freely admits that regulation helped cut air pollution emissions – but obfuscates the cause-and-effect: people applied regulation to polluters because the science predicted dangers. Blaming the scientist for the lack of apocalypse is just silly.

The caveat on DDT in the 60s, air pollution, and the ozone hole in the 80s was always the same caveat: “unless we do something”.

If government and private enterprises actually take action to avoid a problem – it’s stupid to then say “see? The science was wrong!”

4. Misrepresentation

“There was an international agreement to cease using CFCs by 1996. But the predicted recovery of the ozone layer never happened: The hole stopped growing before the ban took effect”, Ridley writes.

First and foremost: on the current trend, Ridley is flat-out wrong. According to http://ozonewatch.gsfc.nasa.gov/meteorology/annual_data.html NASA, the peak size of the Southern Hemisphere ozone hole in 2011 was 12 percent smaller than in 2006.

More seriously, Ridley isn’t presenting the whole facts on the CFC phaseout:

1. The 1996 ban was the end of the reduction process, not the beginning; and
2. Developing nations were given until 2010 to complete their phase-out.

In Australia, for example, nearly 90 percent of CFC reduction predated the 1996 ban agreed in the Montreal Protocol. Any sensible developed nation did likewise.

We should also remember that the protocol gave developing nations until 2010 to complete their phase-out. I don’t propose researching the trajectory of the entire developing world, but you get the point: emissions stopped growing, and so did the ozone hole. But we have a lot of CFCs still to get out of the system.

Scientists said “if emissions continue to rise, this will happen”. Politicians took their advice (and the economy didn’t collapse for lack of CFCs), and emissions didn’t rise.

Only reluctantly – and late in the article – does Ridley note that some of the “apocalyptic” scenarios he derides were “averted by action”.

Action followed scientific fact; it’s depressing that people will still smear scientists because of what journalists write about them.

MSM as mutual masterbatorium

“The Internet ate my homework” is the lamest excuse that exists. Ask the solipsistic morons in mainstream media why their publishers are in trouble, they’ll include “the Internet” in the answer. Ask retailers the same question, get the same answer.

“The Internet” isn’t the problem: people who can’t adjust to new circumstances are the problem.

The problem, in media, is at least partly that the big publishers are turning themselves into a stupid parody of journalism, in which stories about journalism are somehow given equal billing with real stories about facts and events.

Item: The Paul Kelly incident

Like Laurie Oakes, Paul Kelly now only exists as an outlet for his self-importance. He lets out his sail, and blows to make wind. Paul Kelly has an asinine and infantile tantrum at the Prime Minister on TV – and suddenly there’s a story.

Since the story doesn’t have a fact worth its name to stand on, it’s now all about Paul Kelly’s tantrum. So what goes around the rest of the mainstream outlets is “Kelly said” and “Gillard denied”. That isn’t a story – and it doesn’t rate on the give-a-shit meter of anybody except the Canberra class: a curious bunch of people whose minds are addled by living in a cloistered world in which every story is validated by the consensus endorsement of every outlet running the same damn story.

Everybody’s agreed that their news agenda is the Right News Agenda. If the punters are fleeing the publications, it’s not because the news outlets are boring them to death. It couldn’t be: this must be a story, because everybody rates it as front-page, top-billing, This Is An Important Story.

Rather than being bored rigid, the punters are heading elsewhere. Who’s right?

Item: News Scoops Fairfax Board Negotiations

This is even better than the first example: News Limited claiming to be privy to Fairfax board negotiations.

It’s not only that the story is pointless to absolutely every reader except that small handful (a) who actually work in the media and (b) care (which given those two conditions must be a vanishingly small number).

It’s that every News Limited staffer and shill was sent out on Twitter to pimp the stupid story.

It’s that the only point to the entire story is to let News Limited tell the world it got a chance to stick its thumb in the Fairfax eye, to “singe the beard of the King of Spain”, to pimp its ability to piss in its competitor’s teacup.

What infantile bunch of self-abusers can possibly think that its ability to be a corporate bully is something the rest of the world considers “news”? To be more direct: who cares? You can plant a stool pigeon in the Fairfax board: well done, News Limited, that’s right up there with snooping citizens’ phone messages, buying crooks in the UK, and practicing jihad against science.

If Murdoch’s nasty, polluted, corrupt empire collapses, and its brood of coprophiles have to abandon this absurd pretence at News, journalism will endure. We’ll just have to find some way to do without this crap.

The Sydney Harbour Bridge and the NBN

I don’t propose making this blog a full-time refutation of every misstatement made about the National Broadband Network: I’d never have time to write anything else.

Henry Ergas tells us in The Australian (probably paywalled) that the Sydney Harbour Bridge can’t be used as an analogy for the NBN, because (a) the Royal Commission that examined the harbour crossing in the early 20^th century created a cost-benefit analysis (based on forecast rising property values and rail income), (b) on the basis of that analysis, the bridge was expected to yield an operating profit on rail income alone, and (c) rather than being “gold plated”, Bradfield settled on the second-cheapest tender and avoided “novel” designs.

There may have been a cost-benefit analysis of the dear old coathanger, and it may have offered up a model for cost-recovery - but it was based on cost estimates that by the end of the project were no longer accurate.

While the original contract was more than £100,000 below Bradfield’s estimate, and well below the £6 million originally authorized by the NSW parliament, the final cost more than doubled Bradfield’s expectations.

Some quick details from the Sydney Morning Herald via Trove:

The original tender was for a little over £4.17 million pounds (http://trove.nla.gov.au/ndp/del/page/1228584?zoomLevel=1)

The builders, Dorman, Long and Co, eventually received £4.9 million pounds (attributing the increase to higher wages, among other things – http://trove.nla.gov.au/ndp/del/article/16845323?searchTerm=sydney%20harbour%20bridge%20sums%20up&searchLimits=).

In 1931, before the bridge opened, the NSW Auditor General estimated the total project cost had already passed £8 million (http://trove.nla.gov.au/ndp/del/article/46623699#pstart3444730).

Different sources put the ultimate cost at about £10 million – but even at the lower £8 million, the blow-out was sufficient to completely invalidate any cost-benefit analysis. We ended up with a toll to cover the balance.

Finally, a word about “novelty”. Optic fibre is not a “novel” technology by any reasonable definition of the word. Australia began to take notice of the technology in the 1970s; there were deployments by Telecom in the 1980s. Optical fibre is, technically, no more novel than the design of the Sydney Harbour Bridge.

Bleating about the NBN opt-out again

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(Cue background music: “One of These Things is Not Like The Other, from Sesame Street)

Everyone’s up in arms about the “opt out” NBN, it seems. Here’s some snippets.

“The three biggest states have opposed the move by NBN Co to install fibre-optic connections to homes and businesses without asking permission” – The Australian Financial Review.

“The opposition communications spokesperson Malcolm Turnbull said the shift to an opt-out policy confirms that the NBN business plan depends on compulsion” – The Australian.

“Victoria’s … technology minister has confirmed that the state does not support the introduction of Labor’s preferred ‘opt-out’ model for the National Broadband Network” – Delimiter. 

“If Australian consumers want a fixed line for telephony or Internet access, they are going to have to use the NBN’s line” – Malcolm Turnbull on his blog. 

Customers “will be forced into connecting to the national broadband network (NBN) unless they ‘opt-out’” – The SydneyMorning Herald.

How many of these stories have a 2012 dateline? One. The rest are from 2010.

For whatever reason, The Australian Financial Review treated a years-old government policy as a Major News Announcement, duly handing a stick to three state governments, pointing to a piñata called “The NBN”, and letting them swing.

I wonder how the premiers would feel if the Federal Government challenged their water utilities’ rights to fix sewer mains running under private backyards?

The fat and comfortable gang up on an idealistic youngster

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I was old and cynical by the time I became a journalist.

Not so old, I guess: I was in my late 20s. Not so cynical, either. But I had previously worked in the security industry and rock & roll. I would have been hard to shock*, even in a place like the Herald-Sun newsroom that shocked a young intern so much she wrote about it.

The piece isn't all that good - yet every glass jaw in the country feels itself personally assaulted by an impersonal and originally anonymous rant. Fools formed a queue to try the shoe on, just in case it fitted and they could take a swipe in return.

I find myself more in sympathy with Sasha Burden and all her faults – in spite of her over-sensitivity,  inexperienced writing, and the rest – than to align with a collection of fogies old and young explaining why she’s wrong.

So far, criticisms of her boil down to the following:

“That’s just how things are, put up with it”

“Keep it in the family”

“She should have done X”

“Get inside the system before you change it”

"When I were a lad..."

…and so on.  Strip away the indignation and self-justification, and everybody is giving Ms Burden a paraphrase of "don't rock the boat".

Why the hell not? 

If Ms Burden’s approach is wrong, and you know the right way to change the world, then how come, in 2012, the world remains unchanged?

As for the the “harden up” argument – “it’s what I put up with when I was 20”. In other words, journalists who are now fat and forty don’t want their consciences priced for their own (natural) cowardice when they were twenty.

If the Herald-Sun had the balls it professes, it would recognize a troublemaking ratbag who has the basics of a writer. The proper rejoinder to Ms Harden is a job offer. “You know better? Here’s the rope. You can climb it or hang by it.”

(*Actually, the most shocking workplace I ever entered was the old international telephone exchange at Paddington, in an era where international operators still existed. Their habitual conversation taught me things about blue language - and human anatomy - that made each day an agony of blushing.)

Blowout? What blowout?

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Here’s a forecast: there will be more delays in the NBN project – not because the project is impossible, nor due to the incompetence of anyone, but because it’s a very large project, and construction delays are almost inevitable.

Not that this will help Mike Quigley or Senator Conroy in any way: as with the budget, timing is now considered nailed down by a press whose project management skills don’t have to go far beyond the next deadline.

As for the relentless use of the word “blowout” – spotted in the wild at Fairfax, News Limited, the ABC and even TheConversation – what a bunch of dills. The new figures from NBN Co diverge by just 3.9% from the company’s forecasts: in the world of accounting, this would be considered a high accuracy forecast.

In looking at the NBN corporate plan, please keep in mind that there’s a difference between “premises” and “households”. The NBN will pass 12.7 million premises – according to the forecasts in the corporate plan – but that’s not 12.7 million households.

Let’s take a guess that there’ll be 11 million households by the end of the build (there’s about 7.7 million now). The rest of the premises passed are not households – they’re businesses, schools, hospitals, and so on.

This might seem like pointless pedantry, except for this: if some enterprising analyst sits down to try and run their own projection of the NBN’s income based on 12.7 million households, their numbers will be out by around 15 percent. That kind of puts the 3.9 percent everyone’s worried about in the shade.

(Actually, the error will be bigger than that, since the 1.7 million premises getting miscalled households would actually be the kind of premises that spends more than a household. But I’m not about to try and put estimates to that!)

Mars shot successful, while Google classifies kooks as “science”

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Here’s an image to mull upon.

That’s the Google News Australia home-page “science” category at the moment. At the time, about 6pm AEST – several hours after the Mars Curiosity touched down (wow. Just wow.) – Google hadn’t got around to promoting that above the Olympics in Australia.

(A few minutes after Curiosity out-ranked the Olympics, it fell again. Either we’re depressing, or Google News is.)

Oddly, over on “Classic” view, it isn’t just the presentation that changes – so do the stories.

Yes, I realize that there’s a top-of-page section about Curiosity* - but why the hell is a group of acpoaclyptians (it’s a word now, OK?) classified as “Science” in the first place? (*Spelling – because Curiosity is an American venture)

There is absolutely, utterly, one-hundred-percent of number-twenty-seven nothing about that story that qualifies it as Science, except for the arcane mysteries of the Google ranking algorithm.

Oh well. We’re luckier than Americans, who right now aren’t being offered a Science category at all. What a depressing thought.

(By the way: it’s not some quirk of my Google News personalization. I haven’t yet bothered to personalize: no particular reason, I'm just lazy.)

Today’s marmalade

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Except for setting, which drives me nuts, marmalades are easy. So while I wait for the marmalade to set, here’s the receipe.

It’s based on the St Benoit’s Three-Day Marmalade recipe from Jane Grigson with some wrinkles. First, I’m not strict about the timing. Second, I usually mix the citrus up. Third, my wife usually adds some subtle spices. Here’s what’s happening today:

Ingredients

Six small tangellos

Four Seville oranges

Water

Sugar

Star anise

Technique

1.     Slice the fruit (thinly!), put in a boiler, and cover with water. Bring to boil and keep it simmering for about 40 minutes.

2.     Leave 24 hours, add a few star anise seeds, and simmer for another 40 minutes.

3.     Add sugar – roughly 1:1 with the weight of the fruit and water. Bring to the boil and keep it boiling until it reaches setting point.

4.     Bottle in clean, sterilized jars.

If, as often happens to me, you have to delay bottling, just heat the mix each day so it doesn't spoil.

I don’t really know how long it will keep. I’ve got jars that are more than a year old and are still fine when I open them.

The next marmalade will feature blood oranges and kumquats. Stay tuned…

Fixed line decline: real but over-stated

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This post arises because of a Twitter conversation, in which people were speculating about whether political polls have become skewed because of the decline in the landline. If the pollster can’t call you, you’re left out of the sample, and there’s so many no-landline homes now it must destroy the accuracy of the poll, right?

Wrong, I suspect.

Because it’s a Sunday morning, and because nobody’s paying for this, I don’t propose even trying to start crunching the numbers. But I believe that the “landline decline” is frequently overstated. So here are some thoughts on the factors that are left out of the story.

Telstra’s PSTN decline

There has been a fairly dramatic loss of basic PSTN services revealed in a decade’s worth of Telstra annual reports – but that’s not a reliable guide to the number of “no home phone” households. Most of the services disconnected since 2002 represent the consolidation of multiple lines down to a single service. The drivers for this are outlined below.

Broadband – once ADSL became widely available, nobody needed a second line for dial-up Internet any more. That drove a five-year drift in the number of services, starting about 2001-2002.

Faxes – there are still more fax machines out there than the people think, but they have been declining steadily for a decade. A business that disconnects a dedicated fax line contributes to the loss of basic PSTN services.

Business IP telephony – SMEs routinely bought multiple incoming phone lines (I suppose many still do). However, each time a business buys a data service connecting to its IP telephony server, it eliminates an unknown number of individual PSTN services.

Naked DSL – if someone abandons their Telstra landline service and buys a naked ADSL and home phone combo from iiNet, TPG or whoever, they fall out of the Telstra data. However: they might still have a phone number visible to the PSTN.

Cable telephone services – Consumers who connect a PSTN phone to their (say) Optus HFC service don’t count as using a basic telephone service, so there’s a few hundred thousand services that are often forgotten by analysts prepping numbers for the media.

The Naked DSL and HFC services exemplify another difficulty: if you have no Telstra fixed line service, but you do have a PSTN-visible phone number, how should you be counted?

With all of these factors coinciding, it’s quite feasible that Telstra could shed a couple of million basic PSTN services without a single household opting to abandon the fixed phone completely.

The all-mobile individual

Most surveys I have seen identify all-mobile individuals – and there’s a fundamental problem with using this to estimate the number of households without a PSTN service: the individual isn’t the household.

It’s quite feasible for someone to say “I don’t use a fixed line” while still living in a home that has a fixed line – because they’re not the person paying the bill. This is especially true in a world in which young adults no longer leave home at the first opportunity.

The reason I can’t be bothered properly crunching the numbers on a Sunday morning should now be clear: anyone who wants to work this out properly needs a week or a month.

Call this “balance”, Fairfax?

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In its desperate search for “balance” on a climate change story, Fairfax has decided to give oxygen to the deluded world view that says that climate science is a conspiracy to rule the world by a cabal of banks.

Not only that, but this unbelievable assertion closes a story unchallenged. Here is the story: Climate change sceptics unwarmed by scientist’s reassessment of cold facts.

And here’s the relevant quote:

“Mr Roberts [of the Galileo Foundation] said climate change science had been captured by "some of the major banking families in the world" who form a "tight-knit cabal".

“Mr Roberts said he understood that the group's views might sound strange, but claimed they were increasingly popular. "It does sound outlandish," he said. "I, like you, was reluctant to believe it [but] there are significant things going on in Australia that people are waking up to".”

Ignoring the notion that the “popularity” of a view has anything whatever to do with reality, this kind of conspiracy theorizing simply isn’t news. Unlike a climate scientist who has the misfortune to have a journalist call, Mr Roberts is not challenged, asked to provide evidence, or answered by any reasonable voice.

The sole fact in the Galileo Foundation quote is the fact that Mr Roberts said something – and that is not sufficient foundation for the inclusion in the story.

I can’t blame the author, Ben Cubby, for this. There’s some policy set by some editor who has an eye to current and future employment … you know the story.

My only hope is that by quoting kooks, Cubby is trying to punk the system: to hold up the Galileo Foundation to the public ridicule it so richly deserves. That’s a pretty faint hope, but it’s the best I have.

Asylum seekers: what you know makes you guilty

 

(Sorry for the cryptic headline. Unless I want to agonise about them, I suck at headlines.)

Having lived through Australia’s refugee debates of the 1970s, I have wondered many times why today’s debate is so much different. Part of it is, I believe, that we know so much more today than we did then. 

In short: in the 1970s, we knew about the boats that made it here – and didn’t suffer headlines and agonies about the boats that didn’t.

I spent quite some time looking over Trove (if you’re not familiar – the National Library’s online archive) for references to the “boat people” from the 1970s. There are plenty (it documents Ita Buttrose's pro-refugee campaigning in Women's Weekly, for example), but something’s missing: that era lacked today’s debate over preventing tragedies at sea.

While the political decisions made in that era by Malcolm Fraser eventually did “stop the boats”, it didn’t happen instantly. Several years elapsed between the government deciding how many refugees would be accepted, the implementation of the policy – and the cessation of boat arrivals (in the early 1980s).

Today, for reasons both humanitarian and political, an urgent imperative is given to “stopping the boats”.

I went searching for some other data to explain this – and when I couldn’t find it, I tried to confirm it with a good source.

If you go looking for the numbers of Vietnamese and Cambodian refugee boats that went down in the 1970s, good luck: I could not find any such data, and the Australian Border Crossing Observatory at Monash University confirmed that it held no such data (it hopes to launch research to document this; again, good luck).

Nor could I find any headlines talking about sinkings.

This is the cold equation: in the 1970s, we didn’t worry about the boats that didn’t make it, because we didn’t know about them.

In those days, a boat might carry a map and, if it were lucky, a ship-to-shore radio it was probably reluctant to use. Today’s vessels are no more seaworthy, but communications technologies are available and affordable: neither GPS nor portable satellite phones existed in the 1970s, nor emergency beacons or mobile phones – all of which are both available and affordable today.

Also: Australia has vastly expanded its patrols. Also: there are vastly many more satellites watching over the ocean. And so on.

Which leads me to a question: to what extent does knowledge make us responsible for what happens to the boats? Are we, in trying to find a “quick fix” to “stop the boats”, assuming a responsibility that properly belongs to the people on the boats?

Yes: if we take our time implementing a policy, as the Fraser Government did, boats will set out and never arrive. In trying to make ourselves responsible for preventing those deaths, we have created a political impasse that’s frozen our policy that’s lasted so long that…well, so long that if we’d had the leisure that the Fraser government had, we would now have a policy in place that would probably be reducing the number of arrivals.

The sad irony is that our consciences – whether prompted or unprompted, unforced or exploited by politicians – are contributing to the very thing that makes us uncomfortable: the boats are still setting out. We could demand better policy from our leaders; but not if we keep demanding a fast fix to stop the boats setting out.

These are our defenders

I had no real intention to return to blog posting because it can become time-consuming. However, even though writing for The Register is enjoyable, there are things that don't fit the brief. So I'm back to occasionally post my overflow, so to speak.

I wish that self-appointed defenders of my freedom - like Anonymous - would stop interfering with it.

I don’t like data retention, but I do like political debate. And political debate has to include the existence of ideas I might not like - even if only so they can be debated and defeated in public.

There’s even a Web link at which I can detail my responses to the paper that the Attorney-General’s department has published seeking public opinion.

Which brings us to Anonymous, which instead of entering the debate, is trying to coerce the government with the threat of hacking attacks - which include publishing private details of individuals who have nothing to do with data retention.

Some people are happy with the idea of "collateral damage". I'm not.

What about government policies I like, but Anonymous doesn’t? Are they to be stalled or aborted at the behest of the nameless?

This isn’t just fantasy. An exchange with yet-another Twitter account claiming to speak with the name of Anonymous considers carbon trading to be a banking conspiracy, and therefore should not happen - will this be sufficient to justify a "no carbon trading" hack campaign?

The twitter account is called EngageDaMedia, which describes itself as “Anonymous Media”, the operator of which took exception to something I Tweeted regarding climate change. I’ll give you the exchange in full from there (I have taken out the handle of a bystander who happened to get copied on some Tweets).

@EngageDaMedia: @R_Chirgwin Well I'm a sceptic. Whatever the banks sell. I don't buy it! #Rothchilds. Man Made #ClimateChange My (nice) Ass! :)

@R_Chirgwin:@EngageDaMedia Banks aren't selling climate change. They're selling carbon credits. Science isn't banking.

@EngageDaMedia: Yes they R & so is BigOil. How else would they get CC trading established?  Ive had this argument way 2 may times Research it :)

@R_Chirgwin: I read my first explanation of fossil fuels and climate change in a Pournelle article ... in the mid 1970s. Research? Yep.

@EngageDaMedia: @R_Chirgwin #NWO Plan 50 yrs in advance. Its Amazing! Was it Rockefeller/Rothchilds funded? Did ya read a/thing on the suns effects in 70's?

@R_Chirgwin: @EngageDaMedia So Rockerfeller and Rothchild owned Jerry Pournelle and Isaac Asmiov? Ask Jerry, since Asmov's dead...

@R_Chirgwin: @EngageDaMedia Don't let me ruin a good Evil Jews Are Running Climate Change scenario. Just keep it for the left-hand side of the bell curve

@EngageDaMedia: @R_Chirgwin It's NOT a Jewish Conspiracy. It's a Banking Cabal Zionist One. The 'illuminated' Ones! Read this: http://t.co/n3xRjXt0

[I’ll discuss that link later. In the meantime, don’t bother: it’s insane – RC]

@EngageDaMedia: Only polluter will pass on to the people. CarbonTax! @R_Chirgwin

@R_Chirgwin: @EngageDaMedia Which still doesn't say that simple chemistry >100 years old is somehow Zionist. Are you able to disaggregate the concepts?

@EngageDaMedia: @R_Chirgwin 100 years? Its goes far beyond that. Read the article I sent ya. Know What/Who we are up against. Let me know your thoughts

@R_Chirgwin: @EngageDaMedia What's that? The conspiracy to turn climate change into a banking instrument is >100 years old? Excuse incredulity...

@EngageDaMedia: @R_Chirgwin Committee of 300. 13 Illuminati Bloodlines  CFR Club of Rome etc Go!

@EngageDaMedia: @R_Chirgwin Nooo. Talking about the rulers of the planet! NOT a Jewish Conspiracy. Read the BIG article dude. It's Accurate. Scientific too

@R_Chirgwin: @EngageDaMedia Forgive me, I'm still trying work out when the properties of carbon dioxide (19th century) enter the conspiracy.

@EngageDaMedia: @R_Chirgwin You need to understand the mentality of these ppl to understand the grand plan/s. READ THE FUKN ARTICLE. :))

Apparently in response to someone else …

@EngageDaMedia: That's Right … But you cant blame the masses. #Fluoride, #GMO's #MSM #BPA #Drugs FM! Total onslaught from evey direction  @R_Chirgwin

Perhaps I should have stopped sooner, or perhaps I should have trolled for longer. When the discussion reached the use of fluoride, I decided I’d had enough.

The link, by the way, leads to full-on-kook conspiracy theorizing of the first water,  ticking all the boxes from fluoride in water to Freemasons in the 18th century, complete with extra-terrestrial interventions in Earthly politics – it really isn’t worth your time.

I’d like to return now to where I began this article: Anonymous’ intervention in the data retention debate.

Australia also proposes a carbon price which will, ultimately, morph into an emissions trading scheme. Anonymous, at least in the voice above, not only opposes this: it considers our “carbon tax” to be the creation of the Rothschilds and Rockerfellers. The voice that claims to speak for me and be acting as my defender is beholden to the most infantile fantasies imaginable.

Speak for me? Give me a break…

How's this for tasteless?

It's a good thing that the Canberra Times is trying to add sense to the debate surrounding bushfires and prescribed burning ( article). But the Google advertisement, placed over the headline, seems a bit tasteless to me. Here's how it presented in Firefox ...

Solar component prices in Australia

Further to my post the other day about solar prices, I have conducted a brief study.

I should at the outset make it clear that this is not comprehensive. I did not include every solar system component from every outlet, because that would take ages and nobody's paying for this. This is a brief, personal study. It does, however, indicate that a more complete analyst's study would be valuable: perhaps if the solar industry is under scrutiny, prices might fall.

And I'm not going to name names. I don't have the resources to fend off companies who, under criticism, decide to launch legal attacks. But I will nominate the best-price sources for a few items, since I suppose nobody's going to object to being identified in that way!

It should also be noted that the prices I worked with were published on February 19 and February 20, 2009. Prices move, and may not be valid by the time you read this.

This study covered system component prices from 12 online suppliers in Australia.

In this small study, I have focussed on a few core solar components: solar panels, batteries, regulators, and inverters. I have ignored hardware such as frames, and I haven't had time to add chargers to the list.
I have not included eBay prices in this small study. It's often difficult to identify the manufacturer of equipment sold on eBay, which makes it impossible to assert the validity of even a small study.

I have focussed on components from “name” manufacturers. For solar panels, these include Sharp, BP and Kyocera. For inverters, the prices cover Lantronic, Selectronic, Powertech, YK and X-Power. Batteries include Fullriver, Rolls, Trojan, Crown, Concorde, Federal, Exide, Remco and Lifeline (because of the huge price difference in battery technology, I focussed mostly on lead acid batteries). Regulator manufacturers include Steca, Morningstar and Plasmatronics.

Finally, methodology needs to be explained. Panels are different sizes, batteries have different capacities, and regulators and inverters are designed for different loads. To normalise these, I calculated the following parameters:

Panels – Price per rated watt of output power.

Batteries – Price per rated amp-hour of capacity at 12V (allowing comparison between different battery voltages).

Regulators – Price per rated amp output for 12V regulators.

Inverters – Price per rated watt of continuous output.

Results

Panels – The price per rated watt of output ranged from $7.72 to $11.92, so the most expensive panels are 154% more costly than the least expensive. The best price per watt in the study was available from Solaronline for a Sharp 180W panel.

Batteries – Cost ranged from $131.68 per rated Ah up to $665.71 per Ah, making the most expensive batteries more than five times the price of the cheapest. The cheapest battery was a 202 aH Federal battery available from Australia Wide Solar. Difference in battery prices should, however, be treated with caution, since this does not take into account expected battery lifetime nor the different level of maintenance required for different battery designs.

Regulators – Price per Ampere for 12V-capable regulators (this includes 12 / 24V dual-voltage models) ranged from $6.17 to $11.18, a range of 181%. The best price was for a Steca 30A regulator from Energymatters.

Inverters – Inverter prices showed the greatest variation of any of the core components studied, from $0.31 per continuous watt output up to $2.50 per continuous watt. It should be noted that there is high variability in the features offered by different inverters; however, even within brands, the highest price may be double the lowest price for the same unit. The best price was for a YK 1500W, 12V regulator from Solar Online.

Quick observations on the solar industry

I've just spent a piece of today costing out solar systems for home use, because soon I'll be starting to build a holiday shack on a little plot in the Southern Tablelands.

I settled on price per watt as a handy benchmark because it was easy to calculate, and there were some surprises.

The first is that the price variations are huge - the most expensive at retail are twice the price of the cheapest, even though I found the range of brands available quite small (so it can't be put down to the old "quality" standby excuse for high prices).

The second is that eBay isn't a great place to buy solar. Only a handful of prices on eBay for stuff that was sold were much below normal retail, and many of the cheapies could not be identified by brand.

The third is that I went back over some old prices, courtesy of the Internet Archive's Wayback machine, and have come to the conclusion that the solder industry knows a boondoggle - courtesy of government subsidy - when it sees it. So much for saving the planet; we're really about stripping the punters, and who's going to notice a price hike when the government's picking up 2/3 of the tab?

Finally, I really hate the sorts of companies that run the same business under 20 domain names just so they can drag Google searchers. Once I've dismissed someone as overpriced, I'm not going back under some other domain name.

I will be able to put together a solar system I can afford, but the industry doesn't make it easy. Three out of ten, solar industry, and try giving up the extra fat and getting rid of the ripoff merchants.

Let's burn a few social media straw men

Perhaps it's the insecurity born of being the new kid on the block, but social media experts are full of criticism of journalists for not understanding or embracing social media. Their critiques are almost exclusively built on straw men, and I figure it's just as well to identify these.

1) Journalists don't use Twitter.

That's odd, because I know a bunch of Twittering journalists. In my immediate experience, journalists have grabbed Twitter with enthusiasm. Some journalists do, some don't, but that's not surprising; Twitter is still a minority activity – a couple of million users out of a billion Internet users.

2) Journalists don't understand how to get stories from Twitter.

If it was true yesterday, it won't be true tomorrow. Journalists pick up story leads and tips wherever they happen. Just because they prefer selling their output to a paying customer such as a publisher, rather than spilling their livelihood in 160 characters for free, doesn't make the journalist clueless.

3) Journalism is old media

I know quite a few journalists who avoid the term “journalist”, because they've bought the new media fan's cry that journalism is old media. Actually, journalism is an activity. It's something that people do, and the activity is easily differentiated from both the medium (old or new media) and the business model. Avoiding a word because some idiot uses it as a term of abuse means you've accepted the other person's mindset; you're defining yourself in their terms, instead of your own.

Generally, those who say journalism==old media publishing reveal their own lack of understanding. The journalist can exist in a huge range of places that aren't in (say) News Corporation or Fox, and always have.

4)Twitter is the best / only place for contacts

It sounds so silly, put like that, but there are people who believe it. The best place to get a contact is wherever the story comes from. If your contact is on Twitter, that's the place; if your contact is in the pub, then the pub's the place. Anyone who can only interpret life in terms of one channel is, themselves, unidimensional.

5)Twitter is first

The first time I read a story outlining how Twitter outruns the old media straw man, I took the analysis as straight and thought “that's interesting”. The second time, I was watching Twitter unfold at the same time as the story. Since Twitter's stories came from other media (eg, RSS feeds, including 'old media' sites), the claim that it was outrunning its own primary sources is demonstrably nonsense.

As with all media, Twitter has the ability to be first. Any moderately real-time medium can be first; it depends on the channels and reporters (I don't restrict “reporter” to “professional journalist employed by major publisher”) that exist between the event and the reader.

Self Interest or Public Interest? - Google Maps Versus Crown Copyright

The story goes like this: seeing that the Country Fire Authority Website was struggling (as, for that matter, was the Geosciences Australia Sentinel site), Google decided to run a mash-up on Google Maps to display fire locations and help people get the information they needed.

It was able to secure information very quickly from the CFA, which provides a feed of fire information covering private land, but fires on public land are tracked not by the CFA but by Victoria's Department of Sustainability – which didn't give the okay for use of its copyright.

In this ZDnet story, Google's Alan Noble complains that the refusal to provide information has its roots in Crown Copyright, which stands in the way of expanding the geospatial information available to the public.

It's all pretty cut-and-dried, isn't it? On one side, we have a go-getting company devoting resources to a public service, only to be baulked by a hidebound bureaucracy.

But that's not all there is to things.

The first is that Google is well aware how mapping copyrights are handled in Australia. The general reader, I guess, doesn't need the entire end-to-end detail, but the short version is that most of the data used in detailed maps (street directories, for example, or the property boundaries known as cadastral maps) is managed by PSMA – the Public Service Mapping Agency, whose copyright appears on Google Maps Australia's home page next to MapData Sciences Pty Ltd.

Roughly, the PSMA acts as the copyright clearing house for map data at detail finer than that offered for free by Geosciences Australia. In general, this means maps of finer scale than 1:100,000 (this is the potted version, a full description of Australian geodata would need a book).

States own the copyright in their mapping information, and sell it for fairly decent slices of lettuce.

So the first issue in asking for any give-away of state mapping data is simply that there are probably several approvals to go through to get the sign-off; and anyhow, I would guess that a public servant that okayed the free use of data that other users have to pay for would be on a tight spot at some point in the future.

But that doesn't fully satisfy me.

For the last three years or so, in my capacity as an analyst, I have become intimate with geospatial tools and various spatial data sources.

One thing I can tell you is this: while a particular map, or a database of locations, is subject to copyright, there's nothing to stop a person discovering the latitude and longitude of a particular place for themselves, and using that latitude and longitude in a publication. They may well reproduce the co-ordinates held in someone else's database, but the existence of the co-ordinates isn't copyright.

So there's something other than a simple issue of Crown Copyright at stake: Google wanted a particular dataset, to enable a particular programming approach, and it is this that was denied.

There's another remark made by Noble that's worthy of remark:

"It's ironic that I can download detailed NASA satellite imagery [of Australia] more readily than I can get satellite imagery from the Australian government,” he is reported to have said.

That's not surprising: most of the world's satellite imagery comes from NASA, and the Australian government doesn't own the copyright. I can (and do) download NASA images directly to Grass-GIS, the open source geographic application. If you want to get copyright information, go to the copyright owner.

As for its call for mapping data to exist in the public domain, it's worth remembering that PSMA copyright notice at the bottom of Google Maps Australia. There is a clear self-interest here, because Google has to pay a license fee for the PSMA maps – and these don't come for free.

In other words, Google's stance could safely be dismissed, except for one thing.

I happen to agree.

The prices charged for government geospatial data are outrageously high. We paid for the mapping in the first place, via various state lands departments and so on; to buy the maps, we have to pay again – and to buy (say) detailed national street maps runs well into the tens of thousands.

Greater availability won't just support Google: it would open the gate to lots of innovation and, heaven help us, lots of competition, because most of the value-add over the top of geo data is not intrinsic to the data itself.

A Non-Rigorous Calculation: Are E-Books Green?

Just ask Steve Jobs: the best kind of marketing you can get is where your customers do the marketing for you. Buzz is everything.

E-books are one of those markets. Users are absolutely convinced they're right about everything associated with e-books, and are happy to do the marketing on behalf of the industry (how stupid can you be, to act as an unpaid sales rep for anyone?). A quick round-up of e-book arguments runs, roughly:

• Convenience – Why carry one paper book when you can have an entire library everywhere you go?
• Cost – E-books are cheaper.
• Inevitability – This is the way of the future. Anyone who won't get with the program is a luddite.
• Environment – E-books are greener.

Since the environmental argument is the clincher-of-the-day, I'd like to run it over the back of an envelope and see how it stacks up.

Warning: this is not an academic paper. If you want rigourous analysis, it won't be here, because I don't do rigour for free.

Let's start with the simplest case: all households in Australia have three e-book readers and no longer buy paper books. With roughly 7 million households in Australia, we need 21 million e-books to make paper books redundant.

I don't have a calculation of carbon footprint for e-books, but there's a common enough number for mobile phone manufacture – about 60kg of carbon per phone. Let's give e-books the same number.

That works out to 1.26 million tonnes of carbon to equip Australia for a future free of dead-tree books.

What's the carbon footprint of Australia's book consumption?

That's not too hard to provide, at least as a thumbnail. Australians buy about 130 million books a year, and according to the US Book Industry Study Group, a book's footprint is about 4 kilograms. That comes to 520,000 tonnes of carbon in Australia, if the American figures hold true.

This, however, ignores a couple of things.

The first is the electricity consumption of e-books. This is imponderable, because the one thing I can't tell you is how many people will leave the wall-warts plugged in and warm even when the book is charged.

The biggie, however, is the matter of product turnover. No manufacture can stay solvent by selling a device once, and never selling any more. So let's assume that just to keep the suppliers available to us, we'll need to turn the inventory of e-book readers over every ten years – roughly two million devices sold each year.

That puts a premium on the existence of the market; just for the back-of-the-envelope, we'll put that premium at 120,000 tonnnes of carbon (the footprint of 2 million replacement readers each year).

The other item is the network that delivers the books.

I'm going to use a couple of rough estimates here. The first is from Tom Worthington, who calculates that 20kB crossing the network equates to one gram of carbon (he was talking about e-mail, but let's just borrow the number for PDFs as well).

If each book, as PDF, is 1MB, then its network cost would be 50 grams. If Australia's book consumption remained at 130 million books on e-book readers rather than paper books, the network cost would be 6500 tonnes of carbon per year; nowhere near the millions, but neither is it insignificant.

Let's take the whole thing over five years.

Paper books, at 130 million per year sold in Australia, would generate 2.6 million tonnes of carbon.

For e-books, the assumptions (to repeat myself) are 21 million devices, plus 2 million per year new sales to sustain the market, plus 6500 tonnes of carbon per year for downloading books.

The total, at 1.9 million tonnes, is less than the paper book – but it's not as huge as advocates would have us believe, and it certainly doesn't make the e-book some magical “green” alternative.

And there are a few other cost items that I didn't include.

The first is simple: if the e-book needs more carbon than the mobile phone – just 80 kilos of carbon instead of 60 – then the advantage is nearly zero.

The second is that I've ignored disposal. E-books will either add to the toxic metals stream in landfill, or they'll need energy spent on their disposal.

And finally, there's the assumption that the two markets are exclusive. That is, the e-book isn't just another must-have consumer toy: it really is an exclusive replacement medium.

If this last is not true – if e-books create a distinct market that co-exists with paper books – then e-books are an environmental disaster: they will add to the carbon footprint, not reduce it, while at the same time delivering marginal consumer benefits at the cost of being leg-roped into licensing agreements, dragging publishing under the net of DMCA-type legislation, and reducing our freedom to read, share, resell, and give away our books.

Testing a new disto...

I haven't posted for a while, partly because I've been busy with other things (including paying work), partly because I've been busy trying to get Linux to work properly.

Eventually, I had to give up on the Freespire experiment on this laptop (Acer 5315). It's too easy to brick Freespire, thereby putting myself in a place from which the only escape is re-installation.
For example: when I connected a second screen to the machine, Freespire detected it straight away. I couldn't get the second screen to behave like a second desktop, but something's better than nothing, right?

Except that in auto-configuring the second screen, something (no, I don't know what or why) happened, and thereafter the machine declined to boot unless the second screen was connected.

Facing the nth reinstall, I decided that Freespire had had its day, and am now an OpenSuSE user.

But getting things bedded down and stable was non-trivial. OpenSuSE is just as breakable as Freespire was if you're trying to install anything unusual.

The great paradox of Linux is this combination of stability and fragility. Once you get things set up and working, the golden rule is "touch nothing", because if you do anything rash, you'll get into trouble.

On OpenSuSE, what got me into trouble was trying to get the trackpad to behave itself. The 5315 has a hyper-sensitive trackpad and a badly-behaved cursor, and the only way I can make the machine usable is to attach an external mouse and switch the trackpad off.

To fix this, I tried to get the Synaptics driver working; this broke the Xorg configuration, which meant the machine would only boot to the command line. Thankfully, I was able to recover the orginal configuration without a complete re-install.

I have, however, found to my satisfaction that OpenSuSE has a much better understanding of the wireless configuration. Ndiswrapper with the right driver worked completely without a hitch.

Now I just have to win the battle with the machine's sound card, learn how to run two screens properly, and I'll have an almost functional machine.