Nutlessness as a service

Any tech journalist who discusses Malcolm Turnbull's "policy launch" tomorrow without quizzing him on it acting in the service of politics without the chance to examine the policy-maker, and is a fool.

Whatever else we know about Malcolm Turnbull's broadband plans, they represent brains without balls.

Brains tells us that everything you say about broadband in Australia is an attack launched on a government that can't take a trick, even with fourteen trumps in its hand.

Balls?

There once was a man from Devizes

Whose testes were two different sizes

The one was so small

It was no ball at all

The other won several prizes.

When it comes to a broadband policy launch, is Malcolm Turnbull winning prizes?

Don't make me laugh: he's keeping the gig to the morons, partisans, gourmands, time-servers, place-seekers, and dyspeptic dipsomaniac brain-donors of the press gallery.

Having handed a gift of a policy that's already risible – virtue of its red-handkerchief $90 billion – to a witless goon at the Daily Telegraph, Mr Turnbull is now ignoring every approach to journalists with, you know, experience in the telecommunications market.

He's quite free with his advice, criticism and public denigration of journalists that don't agree with him. I've had “why won't you call British Telecom?” (answer: I did) and is happy to tell me what I've misunderstood, forgotten or added up wrong, should I dare to run a spreadsheet over the NBN or any similar project, anywhere else in the world.

I've offered to quiz him at any public press forum he chooses, and never once received a reply.

With 25 years experience in writing about the telecommunications industry, and – if I include my original training at the Overseas Telecommunications Commission – close to 30 years all up around telecommunications, I'm not on the invite list for Malcolm's Great Broadband Policy Launch.

Because, unlike the lazy shit-for-brains that infest the gallery, for whom all politics is reduced to “the government said / the opposition hit back” or “the opposition said / the government hit back”, I am both numerate and familiar with all of the technologies that are proposed for modern broadband.

In other words, people like me – and I have – need to suffer his lame lectures about journalistic technique if we don't agree with him. He'll sit at the door, scratching and whining like last decade's hound that we're not going to the original source (that is, sources that agree with him). But we're not permitted to quiz him in a public forum.

In his broadband launch, Malcolm is going to be an original source – but only if he can share his fleas with other superannuated hounds.

What a lame joke: and this is the best brain in the alternative party of government.

What a joke.

Work that “$90 billion” figure, printed without question, query or even the simplest mathematics by the Daily Telegraph, the utter suckhole of journalistic suckholes in Australia, a place even facts won't use as their hospice because it's better to die in the gutter than have your brains sucked out by News Limited lizard-people with skull-drills and straws.

On today's number of households in Australia, that's well past $10,000 per household.

That number is so stupid – strike that, so utterly stupid – that any journalist worth the price of the headline and a Starbuck's coffee should have asked even one question:

“Since British Telecom is only asking a couple of thousand per kilometre for individual node-to-home connections, on the most inefficient model that human ingenuity can devise, what idiot gave you a convincing estimate of $10k per household for FTTH?”

Or even better: “Why did you believe an estimate that is many times every available international benchmark for FTTH rollouts, based on what's already been spent?”

Or even better: “This is a naked political lie. Put up or shut up.”

News Limited doesn't work that way. Its game is this: we will only run with the naked, unadorned press release, if we get it first. Go off to its IT pages and tell me I'm wrong: but only if you first poll the PR companies who know how the game is played. Give News a 24-hour break; that's all you need.

And it can even be utter drivel as ran in the Telegraph today.

Which is why experts aren't going to be welcome at Malcolm's little piece of theatre. It only took a few seconds with a spreadsheet – but the brain donors don't do numbers, they do “he said / he hit back”. Which is exactly the wank-and-dribble level of intellect Malcolm Turnbull wants covering his policy launch.

The one was so small, it was no ball at all

About vectoring: Malcolm is almost right but not quite

“The fact of the matter is that the shorter the copper loop, the higher the speed you will get. There is a new technology, a noise cancellation technology called vectoring, which is now being deployed, which will literally double the speed. So if you had a line which was delivering 50 megabits per second now, with vectoring, which is just a software solution, it's not, you know, it's not expensive to deploy, you can then double that to 100 megabits per second” – Malcolm Turnbull to ABC Radio National (http://www.abc.net.au/radionational/programs/breakfast/malcolm-turnbull-on-changes-to-the-nbn/4557604 here).

“This is the folly of stipulating one particular technology at the outset. FTTN is a much more powerful, much cheaper, much better prospect now than it was four years ago.”

Damn: I have to try to look at vectoring in a bit more detail, because if you don't understand it, you won't see the pea under the thimble.

First, the line-by-line, then the technology.

“The shorter the copper loop, the higher the speed you will get” – Correct.

“There is a new technology, a noise cancellation technology called vectoring, which is now being deployed, which will literally double the speed. So if you had a line which was delivering 50 megabits per second now, with vectoring, which is just a software solution, it's not, you know, it's not expensive to deploy, you can then double that to 100 megabits per second” – here, Mr Turnbull gets things a little bit scrambled.

It's probably not his fault. The industry PR has done a neat job of wrapping vectoring in a superhero's cape.

“Will literally double the speed” – Vectoring will improve the performance to individual subscribers, but the results they see in the real world are subject to a lot of dependencies. "Can" double the speed would be more accurate.

“Just a software solution, not expensive to deploy” – Only if the equipment in place supports it. If you've rolled out a VDSL2 network, and it's new enough, then that might be true. You'll note in the example I refer to below, Austria's A1 Telekom, the upgrade involved hardware as well as software, which is much more espensive than a software upgrade.

Tl;dr starts here

I realise that there are people queued up ready to fire their “ALP stooge” guns at me. So here is a much more detailed explanation of my position.

Here is an excellent – and not too hard-to-understand – presentation from Ericsson. For the Tl;dr crowd, the main point is that vectoring exists to take care of a particular kind of noise, far-end crosstalk or FEXT.

If Bob and Alice are both DSL customers – any kind of DSL will do – and they're served through the same cable bundle, then each of them appears as “noise” to the other. That is, Bob's signal will couple to Alice's twisted pair, and since it's not Alice's signal, it's noise, and reduces the capacity available to Alice for communication.

The same thing, of course, happens to Bob: Alice's crosstalk cuts into his capacity.

However, the noise Alice generates is different to random electrical noise: it has some predictable characteristics, because you know it's a DSL signal that's generating the noise. That means you know (for example) which frequency bands will suffer noise, and that patterns that it will exhibit.

And that means – with good mathematics (if you want employment in mathematics, network physical layer work is a good place to start) – you can get rid of Bob's noise on Alice's line, and vice-versa. This is vectoring.

Bob, Alice, and World+Dog

If there were only Bob and Alice to worry about, vectoring wouldn't be a “new thing”. But every house connected through a twisted pair is connected in a bundle of cables. 

In a bundle of 48 cables, this would be unmanageable even with vectoring, if every cable coupled its crosstalk to every other cable. Fortunately, that doesn't happen. Lines will couple more strongly if they're close together. More importantly, some lines – for example, where copper degradation or damage spoils the line's impedance – will leak more noise than others.

Ideally, all crosstalk should be cancelled, but Ericsson's white paper notes that “close to optimal” performance can be achieved by concentrating on eliminating the noise from “dominant disturbers”.

And in the case of vectoring, “optimal performance” means the speed VDSL2 can achieve on a single line. “Vectoring” doesn't change the maximum speed available on VDSL2 – it lets more users get closer to that maximum speed in a crowded cable bundle. 

Vectoring in practise

In a presentation to the 2013 Broadband World Forum, Gerald Clerckz of A1 Telekom Austria gave a presentation outlining that carrier's experience with vectoring in its field trial in Korneuburg.

The implementation involved: 

• upgrading DSLAM line cards 
• upgrading the DSLAM software 
• upgrading modem firmware to support vectoring
• replacing modems that could not support vectoring.

A1 Telekom is pleased with vectoring, saying in the presentation that vectoring is “fulfilling the expectations” while also noting that “it cannot be seen as a replacement for FTTH”, but rather as a bridging technology on the way.

With that noted, there is a very wide spread of real-world outcomes achieved in the field trial. At between 250 and 300 meters loop length, customers on the trial experienced download speeds from around 120 Mbps down to around 35 Mbps; customers at above 400 meters experienced speeds between about 22 Mbps up to 75 Mbps. The poor customer at 600 meters was only able to get around 30 Mbps. 

I don't have permission to reproduce the original chart, but here are the extremes at different distances:

This, remember, is a real-world deployment, not a vendor's claim - and it's a set of data from a carrier that's happy with vectoring. It's a statistically valid sample, as well, since the test covered 500 homes, more than ten percent of the service area of the test.

What's clear, here, is that while vectoring can double speeds, there isn't much difference in the top-to-bottom envelope - and that diference evaporated at 600 meters (however, that may represent fewer data points). At 300 meters, the difference in best-case performance was 33 percent.

“Sorry son, don’t like the haircut”

DAMN I was going to sleep.

This from Malcolm Turnbull:

“NYTimes: Prison Population Can Shrink When Police Crowd Streets http://t.co/1a6vHnuL”

Oh thank you Malcolm. Another pass-on from America, where someone can get shot for entering the wrong driveway, can get mass-beaten by police, but where the relentless propaganda is that the best way to protect freedom is to curtail the individual and empower the instutution. Let someone carry a gun, but put RFIDs on students; let the gun makers thrive, and use drones to spy on citizens.

Back here in Australia, I am old enough to remember a darker era of policing, exemplified by what was a catch-phrase in the 1970s and 1980s:

“Sorry, son, don’t like your haircut.”

So here’s a story I’ve related before: that I knew someone who was arrested – not gently – on a charge of “resist arrest”. That’s sufficiently recursive to boggle the mind, but the most salient detail – the one that got a 1980s magistrate laughing out loud at an uncomfortable police prosecutor, is this.

At the time of the arrest, and at the court appearance, the individual in question was immobilised by a leg cast (plaster, not one of those plastic scaffolds we use now) that started at the pelvis and ended at the ankle.

The entire thing was a joke: merely a probationary constable getting a dose of the red mist at a cricket match, grabbing someone from behind at random, and taking exception when they tried to brush off the hand. The individual in question is and always was one of the most harmless people imaginable. Not harmless as in “wouldn’t harm a fly”, more “harmless as in Bernie Fraser would need four pounds of dope, a fifth of scotch and a hammer-blow to the head to be so laid back.”

To be more personal. I’ve been spread-eagled by a country cop for the crime of being the first to arrive at a car accident. I wasn’t in the accident, I was just the next car down the road, and someone else called the ambulance, and the ambos called the cops, and my teenage nemesis saw red when he saw me. The ambos talked him down.

Or there’s the friend of mine who didn’t even have to break the speed limit to get hassled: merely driving a 1970s V8 Ford Falcon Cobra (in imitation of the Moffat car that won Bathurst) was enough.

And personally? I’ve never even managed an arrest – which is probably an admission of failure as a journalist – let alone a conviction. I’m boring and somewhat conventional.

No, I won’t feel safer with an infestation of street police to take offence at my haircut or face.

And if I had one wish, it would be for the Liberals to stop telling Australia is should copy America in all things. I vowed long ago never to return to the USA, and I don’t wish it to be imported to Australia.

Will the coalition’s FTTN get people off dial?

This is odd: There’s a considerable gap between two different ABS measures of the number of dial-up Internet customers still in Australia.

According to the bureau’s Internet Activity, Australia, there were 379,000 household dial-up subscribers at the end of 2011. However, according to the Census data (collected in August 2011), there were only 235,000 households reporting themselves as dial-up Internet users.

I suspect that there are a lot of people who kept a backup dial-up account at some point, and who haven’t gotten around to cancelling it.

This is an aside, however. 

This post is in the context of Malcolm Turnbull's initiative to survey users on broadband speeds.

I was interested that Turnbull's concerns include the dial-up customer (which led me to notice the data discrepancy). To quote Tony Eastley’s introduction* in AM, “the opposition says close to half a million households still use dial-up technology, and they’re being forced to wait too long for the NBN.”

Given the speed of dial-up’s decline in Australia, I doubt it. The dial-up sector lost nearly 100,000 customers in the six months to December 2011 anyhow – if that rate is maintained, it will die of its own accord in a couple of years.

(I would guess that most of the remaining 90,000-ish businesses with dial-up accounts use them only for backup, by the way. That application is being replaced rapidly with mobile connections.)

My other point is best illustrated by a rough map:

This shows the Census SA1 areas in which more than ten percent of the households still have dial-up connections. I haven’t calculated exchange distances, but the illustration should tell you enough.

Dial-up is at its most stubborn in remote places – areas that would be the slowest, most expensive and difficult to upgrade to FTTN.

*Note: it's perfectly possible that AM misunderstood something Mr Turnbull said, but that the program didn't put to air. If so, my apologies to Mr Turnbull.